# How to Quickly Assess the Accuracy of an Astrological Forecast?

jan 20, 2023 For newbie in astrology

If you ask me what the accuracy of an astrological forecast is, I can give you the exact percentage. I’ll show you how to determine this accuracy in a minute.

But first, ask yourself: “Are horoscopes generally accurate?” And my answer will almost always be no.

## Why is Astrology Often Wrong?

Planets in a horoscope always show a whole class of things. For example, Mars means everything that cuts, burns or is aggressive in manifestation.

If you see in a horoscope that a person is in contact with Mars, you can only be 100% sure whether it will be an accident or a lawsuit if you know that the person is a racer or is preparing documents for the court.

Astrologers often make predictions (such as solar returns) remotely without even knowing the client’s current circumstances. As a result, the accuracy of the astrological forecast, in this case, tends to be zero.

But if you know what a particular planet means in the current situation, you can quantify the accuracy of the forecast. So you need to know the current circumstances.

## How to Evaluate the Accuracy of an Astrological Forecast? Real-life examples

Let me give you three real-life examples. You will get an idea of how to evaluate the accuracy of an astrological forecast.

### Moving to a New House and Washing Machine

The girl asked me if she would move to a new house next month. I answered yes, but added that she would run into a broken washing machine. And so it happened. On the day she arrived, the washing machine broke down.

What was the chance that the three events would happen simultaneously?

- Next month the girl will move to a new house and
- At the same time, something broke there and
- It would be a washing machine and nothing else.

The chance is slim. Let’s see how to evaluate this numerically with the following example.

### Late Students

At one of the astrology lessons, I noticed the absence of three students. So instead of guessing when they would come, I made an accurate astrological forecast in front of the audience and announced that the first two students would come together in 3 minutes. And the last one - after another 1 minute.

Everyone waited to see what would happen next. Then, exactly 3 minutes later, two students entered the class, and a minute later, a third.

What were the chances of making such a prediction?

Consider any of the three students.

- What are the chances he couldn’t come to class that day? 50%.
- If he comes, what is the probability that he will show up at a specific minute within the next 15 minutes? That’s right, 1/15. (I’m here on average 15 minutes late).

What is the chance a student will arrive at the class at the same time at a particular minute within the next 15 minutes? It is 1/2 times 1/15, which is 1/30.

And finally, what is the probability that three students will show up at the predicted time? We need to divide the result by 3. Total,

- The probability of the expected result is 1/90 (about 1.1%).
- And the error rate is 100% - 1.1% = 98.9%.
- If out of 100 possible outcomes, you avoided 99 mistakes, then you were 99% correct. It is the accuracy of a particular astrological forecast.

The lower the probability of the predicted outcome, the higher the accuracy of the prediction when it hits the bull’s eye.

## Zero Accuracies of Astrological Forecast

Suppose an astrologer tells you that your financial situation is about to change. This wording sounds familiar. But what is the accuracy of this astrological forecast?

As soon as you go shopping, your bank account balance will change. Therefore, automatically your financial condition will also change. The probability of such an outcome tends to be 100%. It means that the accuracy of the forecast tends to be 0%.

## Still Doubting the Accuracy of the Astrological Forecast?

Once at a party, friends left an expensive camera somewhere and could not find it. The owner of the camera was distraught.

I made a horoscope of the situation and said the camera was in a bag to my left under a red cosmetic bag.

Indeed, there was a bag to my left. My friends were surprised when the camera owner pulled out a red cosmetic bag from the box. And they were even more surprised when the camera followed the cosmetic bag.

The probability of simultaneous coincidence of all these details tends to be 0%. Thus, the accuracy approaches 100% (although never 100%).

## Are Birth Horoscopes Accurate?

I consider the birth chart an unreliable information source. As I mentioned earlier, any planet can have multiple meanings, so what meaning to prefer and how to interpret the planet depends mainly on the astrologer’s intuition.

In my practice, I use the horoscope of the situation (or horary astrology) for greater accuracy of forecasts. The reason is simple. In the context of a particular case, the planets have an exact meaning, and the chances of making a mistake are minimal.

Luckily, the rules of that astrology are strict so that one can describe them algorithmically. I put them into the code and created the intelligent chatbot, which can make predictions better than actual astrologers. Try it out. You will be amazed by the accuracy and speed of the forecast.

##### Mark Rusborn (A. Borealis)

Former Soviet physicist, now a professional astrologer, creator of the Pocket-Astrologer project.